Ufa 2015 - the time of registration of the New World Order

Ufa 2015 - the time of registration of the New World Order

Dear comrades. We are with you at the central event of the current political year, not only in Russia, but also in the world. Against the background of the G7 summit, which was openly gray, the main idea was to show the unity of countries in the fetish about “punishing Russia”, the failed 40th anniversary of the OSCE Helsinki Act and the G20 summit and the next session of the General Assembly The UN (on which it is not yet clear whether there will be an international political bomb or not), the BRICS summit starting in Ufa is considered an extremely significant event.

In itself, holding at the same time in one city in a conglomerate of the BRICS and SCO summits at the same time, plus the CSTO meeting, plus a working meeting of the heads of the EAEU. This world of international meetings in one place at one time the world has not yet seen!
What is its meaning? The significance of this summit is that it actually marks the era of the impending New World Order,when actively developing countries begin to set development plans for themselves much larger than states traditionally considered to be developed. In fact, this summit should outline the outlines of the global leadership of the BRICS in matters of universal significance.

If, prior to Fortaleza, BRICS was a "club of interests", then at the 2014 meeting and after it, it began to acquire more outlined organizational features (BRICS Bank, BRICS currency pool, a set of consultative meetings, the BRICS parliamentary assembly).

The summit in Ufa should be an important milestone in the strategic planning of the development of a new world political architectonics, show the world new forms of institutional interaction and it is possible to show a new international political platform.

Part 1. BRICS Expectations

BRICS throughout the entire period of its existence did not have enough "masses". Having emerged outside of any functional aspects as a club of interests, BRICS throughout the whole cycle tried not to go beyond the limits of this format. The organization was initially viewed as a platform for the conversation of the heads of the most rapidly developing countries (Brazil, Russia, India, China),with competitive advantages for future development: India and China are of mass and relatively cheap labor (as measured in 2009), Brazil and Russia are natural resources. At the same time, the creation of the BRIC site (BRICS) was a kind of response to the global financial crisis of 2008. At first, the structure copied the G7 / G8 format, and sometimes did so quite comically, adopting, for example, terminology, for example, calling negotiators "sherpas." Meanwhile, over the past full cycle of meetings (recall that the first summit was held in 2009 in Yekaterinburg), BRICS acquired new outlines related to the acquisition of a fundamentally new place in the international system.
What can we expect from the BRICS summit in Ufa?

What will be exactly:

1)Development plan.The main document that will be adopted at the summit will be a BRICS program for 25 years, a document that will largely determine the political development of the world until 2040. Such planning periods in themselves deduce forecasts from the plane of plans into the foresight plane. We will consider this program in detail as soon as it is published.

2)Functional content of the BRICS tools. The ideas that sounded in Fortaleza 2014 - the BRICS Bank and the BRICS currency pool at the Ufa site will get a clear outline. Statements are already coming that these tools will begin to work before the end of 2015 (by work we mean not just structurally to exist, this is practically ready in principle even before the summit, but also to actually manage not a small cash fund and carry out the first financing). It is assumed that the BRICS structures will acquire their complete shape in Ufa (BRICS rating agency, BRICS Inter-Parliamentary Assembly, BRICS Network University, BRICS Research Center on Global Politics and Economics). It is possible the decision to create new structural elements, some of which may be a big surprise.

3)BRICS interfacing with regional organizations and components. BRICS has emerged in a space in which there are already a significant number of international organizations specializing in a number of areas. This summit should build a new architectonics of interaction between such structures. First of all, this is a bunch of BRICS and the SCO, given that the three BRICS locomotives - China, India and Russia, are either part of the SCO or will soon be part of it.Developing a form of interaction will help avoid duplication of agendas and give more weight to the BRICS decisions. The format of cooperation of the SCO / BRICS could potentially be transferred to a number of other structures in America (Unasur / Mercasour) and Africa (SADC / SATS). In addition, mechanisms of interaction between the BRICS and the EAEC can be developed, including in the framework of the Great Silk Road project. The relationship between the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (ABII) and the Bank of BRICS will also be determined, as well as the potential for creating institutions similar to ABII and linking them to the Bank of BRICS for the regions of Central Asia and Eastern Europe (Eurasian Bank) Africa) (African Infrastructure Investment Bank).

That is, we can talk about the full alignment of the BRICS orbital structure, including partner organizations and service institutes.

What could be:

In Ufa, several events may occur that may be important:

1)Unlink from UN financial institutions(World Bank and International Monetary Fund). In principle, statements that the Bank of BRICS and the pool of currencies are the de facto alter ego of the World Bank and the IMF, the representatives of India and Brazil have already done.Statements that these banks do not claim such a role from the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs are nothing more than polite. Such a global and large-scale institution like the BRICS Bank simply cannot help but start elbowing with the WB. Another thing is when the end of the hegemony of the IMF and the World Bank will be put. Now at the BRICS forum in Ufa, in November at the G20 summit, where, as always, it will not be possible to convince the USA to abandon hegemony in the IMF and the World Bank, or at the next BRICS summit in 2016. But steps in Ufa will be made anyway.

2)Decision making on the introduction of the BRICS settlement currencyThis currency could become a direct competitor of the dollar in international trade, but the introduction of such a unit of account requires very substantial development. Most likely, an agreement will be reached in Ufa to create the necessary structures for the future emergence of a settlement currency - the creation of a system similar to SWIFT, etc.

3)The emergence of a militarized trend in the activities of the BRICS. This can happen if a decision is made to coordinate not only with the SCO and Eurasian Economic Community, but also with the CSTO, at least by creating a single committee of the chiefs of staff of the CSTO and the SCO countries not belonging to the CSTO under the auspices of BRICS.This step in itself is frightening (not only opponents, but also supporters) and China actively declares the absence of a military alliance between Russia and China. But this is not a union? This is just a step towards the meeting.

Part 2. Expectations of the SCO

A unique case in the world history of the merging of the summits of a regional organization and the global discussion forum can actually result in much more.
It is not a secret for anybody that the SCO has been considered by many experts as a kind of working tool for solving the urgent problems of eastern and central Asia. Since its inception, it has played essentially only one role - the SCO should have become a mechanism, on the one hand, restraining China’s political expansion into Central Asia, and on the other, promoting its economic advancement. For a long time, this dualism has resulted in a failure to understand the role of the SCO for the main actors of the process - Russia and China. Russia wanted to see the SCO as a platform for discussing the most important political problems - border conflicts, terrorism and the environment. China considered the SCO as a space for promoting its economic projects.But the most important thing that the SCO has done over the years is that it has helped to set up mechanisms for resolving the problems of honey in Russia and China in the mode of routine work. This elaborated form of interaction showed the possibility of including and harmonious work in such institutions of pair-competitive states, for example, China / India, India / Pakistan. The ability to solve such conflicts is a very important aspect of the work of the SCO.
But what can we expect from the SCO in Ufa? In addition to the convergence of positions with the BRICS, there are obviously a number of points, the implementation of which will be a priority.

What exactly will be:

1.Beginning of procedures for full membership in the SCO of India and Pakistan. The accession of these states to the SCO (and these states submitted applications for entry at last year’s Dushanbe summit) would mean the growing of the SCO and its transformation from a mechanism for quickly resolving Russian-Chinese problems in Central Asia, taking into account international organization. To this should be added the desire to move to the membership of such states as Belarus (which called itself the western corridor of the SCO)as well as a number of countries willing to become observers and partners in the dialogue (about 12 states in total), including Egypt, which takes the SCO out of Asia and extends it to Africa and Eastern Europe.

2.Resolving issues of integrating the SCO into the project of transport corridors of the Great Silk Road in Central Asia. What will surely be able to agree on is to support the development of the Great Silk Road project, which has become the most promising and ambitious transport project of China. It is the SCO that can solve a number of problems arising with other countries in Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan in resolving this issue. Potential adherence to the organization of India and Pakistan may make it possible to supplement the draft of the GTP with a vertical transport corridor Indian Ocean - Central Asia.

3.Creating a mechanism of political opposition to the "color revolutions" and destabilizing factors in Central Asia. One of the pressing problems for the SCO was the opposition to color revolutions, which even touched upon the flagships of the SCO - Russia (Bolotnaya - 2012) and China (Hong Kong - 2014/2015). Obviously, such a factor of instability as color revolutions,can only interfere with global transport projects, so it is likely that a mechanism will be created to counter negative factors in the region. This will be carried out through special observer missions that can help in the implementation of civil dialogue on the one hand, and on the other using the Russian and Chinese media to block the possibility of one-sided coverage of events.

What could be:

1.The beginning of joining the SCO of Iran. Iran has already expressed a desire to join, but with regard to Iran, the question was raised about the lifting of sanctions. We believe that by the end of the forum they will not have time to lift these sanctions, however, probably, a political statement will be enough that in Vienna the parties (Six + Iran) agreed to solve the problem in order to decide on opening the road for Iran to fully participate in the future in the composition of the SCO. Iran’s potential entry into the SCO may, again, allow to expand a number of conflicts in Central Asia on the one hand and build a vector of influence on the Middle East on the other, turning the SCO into the most influential international association in Eurasia.

2.Participation in the implementation of infrastructure projects in Central Asia through the creation of a special SCO Bank. Such a bank could be an effective mechanism for financing projects in Central Asia, but the logic of its creation rests on the already established Bank (AIIB). In this regard, the only question is whether China will want to finance this bank along with the AIIB or not.

3.Format of joint peacekeeping activities. Among the most difficult issues is the format for resolving security issues in Asia. On the one hand, the Pacific Theater is gradually warming up, on the other hand, within the framework of the SCO, they have avoided talking about peacekeeping, but instability in the Central Asian region and the problems of Afghanistan may force decisions to create some kind of global security decisions in Asia. How ready are the SCO countries for this is an open question. In theory, the CSTO (which unites the majority of the SCO member states) could well become a power center for the SCO, but this partnership does not suit everyone (for example, it irritates Uzbekistan). So the question is open.

Part 3. CSTO expectations

The CSTO meeting in Ufa brings an element of urgency to the Ufa agenda. The CSTO is a unique military-political alliance. He can rightly be called one of the most peaceful military alliances on the planet, because the lion’s share of its activity falls on exercises, and not on real actions of which we can recall only a few observations and work to prevent IMU militants from breaking through to Uzbekistan (although in the latter case it was not clear to the CSTO that this or not to the CSTO). This organization was actually created with one goal - to provide at least some kind of stability in the military sphere in the space of the former USSR. And this mission was, in general, accomplished. Meanwhile, it is now for the CSTO that the moment of truth begins, since the willingness of this organization to stand up for the interests of the countries of Central Asia in a heated atmosphere (ISIS, Taliban, IMU, etc.) and cover the "soft underbelly of Russia" will determine whether The issue of security in Asia can be addressed through the CSTO instruments or another, more subtle tool will be required. Assuming that collective security issues will flourish in Ufa, of course, is frivolous, but the fact that they will give the summit piquancy is indisputable.Meanwhile, the CSTO has both real plans for Ufa and hypothetical ones.

What will happen:

1.Creating a mechanism to counter the threat of drugs in Central Asia.In fact, the main achievement, which will be at the end of the summit in Ufa, will be the development of mechanisms for collectively counteracting the spread of drugs. One of the decisions that will be made (surely) is joint measures to eliminate the increase in Afghanistan. Given that Ufa is waiting for the arrival of the President of Afghanistan, the likelihood of such an extreme decision being made is great. Since the forces and means of the Federal Drug Control Service of Russia and a similar department in Afghanistan are clearly not enough, there is a possibility of attracting CSTO funds to this task.

2.Development of security measures for security infrastructure projects in Central Asia.The CSTO itself will have to protect the construction of the Great Silk Road communications, so it is in Ufa that a decision can be made about the interaction of the CSTO with the SCO (and partly BRICS) on this issue, including in the exchange of intelligence information, providing support on the territory of the SCO countries threats, non-military actions to improve the situation in the region.

3.Receiving from BRICS and SCO expressed opinions on the need to ensure stability in Central Asiaand countering threats from ISIS and other Islamist organizations. This opinion will express political support for the plans of the CSTO and, as it were, will give it additional political legitimacy (although the CSTO already had it)

What could be:

1.Provision of a power component for the SCO. The CSTO, as it was written earlier, could potentially become a mechanism for protecting Central Asia from threats. However, this project does not yet have total support, although the idea that "something needs to be done" is already in all SCO states.

2.Financial support for the interests of the CSTO (including infrastructure). It can be assumed that the SCO summit will raise the question of the possibility of using the AIIB or the BRICS bank to create infrastructure in Central Asia to resolve dual-use issues. That is, used for civilian and military transport tasks. So, banks could well "invest" in the repair and construction of airfields in Central Asia, railway lines that could be used for the needs of the CSTO.

3.Joining the CSTO new members.This question actually arises quite often, but it is too complicated to be resolved by the “memorable date”. Moreover, the candidates are very specific: China (not yet ready to take an even tougher stance in the confrontation with the US and actually go on creating a military bloc with Russia), Uzbekistan (which has already escaped the SCO twice), Afghanistan (which has so many problems there is no desire for anyone there).

Part 4. Expectations of EAEC

Actually in Ufa, the Eurasian Economic Union will be represented in the smallest format among other structures. Just a working meeting of the heads of the EAEU states, a very routine event. However, the proximity of BRICS / SCO / CSTO can add some color to this meeting.

It is worth noting that the Eurasian Economic Community is currently the most actively developing integration mechanism in which Russia participates. A very interesting initial form (the Customs Union) and active support of the project by Russia and Kazakhstan make it very dynamic. Meanwhile, the Eurasian Economic Community faces obvious problems, including two actually - further directions of integration (including a common currency) and policies towards third countries,which so far manifests itself as readiness to sign agreements on a free trade zone according to the formula “country - EAEC”, which was recently done with Vietnam, but is the organization ready to join states outside the CIS? This question is the challenge that will obviously be faced by the countries of the Eurasian Economic Community in the near future.
Meanwhile, the tasks of the EEU at the summit in Ufa are rather laconic and modest.
What will happen:

1.Final accession to the EAEC of Kyrgyzstan. Actually, this is an “open secret”, since all the parliaments of the EAEU countries have ratified the agreement on the accession of Kyrgyzstan neatly in front of Ufa. So specially prepared piano in the bushes will be required.

2.Adoption of a memorandum on coordination of positions on cooperation with the SCO in terms of the development of infrastructure projects. Actually a technical document that will say that the Eurasian Economic Community is ready to take into account the needs of the Great Silk Road in the context of its rules and tools.

3.Acceptance of documents on the creation of a free trade zone with a number of countries.Of the countries that will be present in Ufa, a few expressed such a desire, and in principle nothing prevents to clothe this interest in the documentary form.

What could be:

1.Solving the problem of transport corridors with Uzbekistan. One of the problems facing the EAEU in the Asian sector is that Kyrgyzstan is to some extent dependent on the Uzbek communications in terms of foreign trade. In addition, a potential candidate for membership in the EAEU - Tajikistan links its participation in the EAEU with the solution of the issue of transport corridors in Uzbekistan. Meanwhile, the president of Uzbekistan is known as a very sophisticated politician, so knowing the strategic advantages of Uzbekistan will bend his line. The level of summits meanwhile gives hope that collective pressure will shake the positions of Uzbekistan.

2.Application for accession of Tajikistan to the EAEC. Actually it depends mainly on the decision of the first item of possible results. If the issue with Uzbekistan is resolved, the application from Tajikistan will not be long in coming.

3.The signing of an agreement on a free trade zone of the EAEC with Egypt. Of course, both sides have already indicated their interest in this, however, we believe that the deadline for implementing the February agreements on the FTA work is too small and the parties may not have time to agree on all the issues of the agreement.

Part 5. Ambient reaction

In this part, unfortunately, we will have to add a fair amount of conspiracy to the analysis.

First of all, it should be noted that the Ufa Summit in itself does not cause anyone any problems, since all that will be taken has already been worked out. Meanwhile, in the foreign media, the reaction to Ufa is somewhat nervous. In general, given the number of delegations arriving, the summit is viewed negatively by the United States. In essence, such a representative summit is a stick in the wheel of the American doctrine of “isolation of Russia”. So the results of the summit in the Western media will be silent on the maximum. Although in terms of era "after creating RT"it will be difficult.

The summit in Ufa is taking place against the background of very high-profile Greek events, which allows Western media to work more in Greece, not in Ufa. At the same time, it is believed that what happened in Greece significantly reduces the likelihood of any negative actions on the part of the EU, since he and without the BRICS now have something to do. Any loud sensations in Greece at the BRICS summit can hardly be expected. Although potentially an interesting topic.
 
The conspiracy component is that some commentators have tried to link the recent problems of China (falling stock markets) and Russia (a sharp drop in oil prices) with the activities of the United States.This question (whether the United States is involved or not) cannot be answered unambiguously (there is simply no methodology for solving this problem), however, the occurrence of synchronous difficulties for the main actors indicates the non-randomness of this process.

In addition, among the possible further consequences can be called - a possible attempt to aggravate the situation in Ukraine, the intensification of negative trends in Afghanistan, etc.

It is worth noting that the United States or Western Europe does not have adequate weapons with regard to the BRICS decisions.

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  • Ufa 2015 - the time of registration of the New World Order

    Ufa 2015 - the time of registration of the New World Order

    Ufa 2015 - the time of registration of the New World Order

    Ufa 2015 - the time of registration of the New World Order

    Ufa 2015 - the time of registration of the New World Order

    Ufa 2015 - the time of registration of the New World Order

    Ufa 2015 - the time of registration of the New World Order

    Ufa 2015 - the time of registration of the New World Order

    Ufa 2015 - the time of registration of the New World Order

    Ufa 2015 - the time of registration of the New World Order

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